Xyoo 2025, Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm tag nrho ntawm photovoltaic (PV) thiab lub zog cua tau dhau qhov ntawm lub zog thermal thawj zaug, ncav cuag 1.84 billion kilowatts. Qhov no ua rau PV thiab lub zog cua yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm hluav taws xob, suav txog 47.3% ntawm tag nrho cov peev xwm ntsia thiab yuav luag ib nrab ntawm tag nrho cov peev xwm ntsia thoob ntiaj teb ntawm PV thiab lub zog cua. Yog li ntawd, Tuam Tshoj tau tsim lub ntiaj teb lub zog rov ua dua tshiab loj tshaj plaws thiab loj hlob sai tshaj plaws. Kev hloov pauv ntawm cov qauv no tau tso lub hauv paus zog khov kho rau kev ua tiav cov hom phiaj "ob chav carbon" raws sijhawm. Txawm li cas los xij, vim yog qhov tsis tu ncua thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov zis hluav taws xob rov ua dua tshiab, ua ke nrog kev hloov kho ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov qauv thov, qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi hluav taws xob tau nce siab heev, ua rau muaj kev txwv tsis pub ua haujlwm ruaj khov ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob. Xyoo no, National People's Congress thiab Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference tau muab cov lus qhia tseem ceeb los ua kom nrawm dua kev txhim kho ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob.
Cov neeg sawv cev tau hais tias kev xyaum ua tau qhia tias kev txhim kho kev lag luam hluav taws xob tsis tuaj yeem sib cais los ntawm kev txhawb nqa kev koom tes ntawm kev ua lag luam derivatives. Hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm kev ua lag luam hluav taws xob hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas, lawv kuj tau ntsib teeb meem ntawm kev hloov pauv loj heev ntawm tus nqi hluav taws xob uas tshwm sim los ntawm kev nce ntawm lub zog tshiab. Kev siv cov cuab yeej derivatives tau dhau los ua txoj hauv kev tseem ceeb los daws qhov teeb meem no. Hauv kev hloov pauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob hauv xyoo 2001, UK tau hloov lub tshuab hluav taws xob ib txwm muaj nrog tus qauv "daim ntawv cog lus ob tog + kev ua lag luam sib npaug" los ntawm kev qhia cov cuab yeej derivatives xws li yav tom ntej thiab kev xaiv, txhim kho kev ruaj khov ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev ua lag luam. Nyob rau xyoo tas los no, qhov ntim kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam paub tab hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas tseem nyob ntawm theem trillion-dollar txhua xyoo puag ncig. Qhov ntim kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv Tebchaws Europe tau mus txog 9-10 npaug ntawm kev ua lag luam qhov chaw, thiab hauv Tebchaws Meskas, nws tau mus txog 15-20 npaug. Ntau tshaj 90% ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob yog them los ntawm cov ntawv cog lus nyiaj txiag xws li yav tom ntej, ua kom ruaj khov ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi hauv kev ua lag luam qhov chaw. Kev coj ua thoob ntiaj teb tau lees paub tag nrho tias kev lag luam hluav taws xob uas paub tab yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo ntawm tus nqi, ua kom muaj kev ua haujlwm ruaj khov ntawm cov koom haum ua lag luam, thiab tswj kev ua haujlwm zoo ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob. Cov neeg sawv cev ntawm Ob Lub Rooj Sib Tham ntseeg tias piv rau cov kev lag luam paub tab hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas, kev lag luam hluav taws xob ntawm Tuam Tshoj tseem nyob rau theem pib tshawb nrhiav. Cov txheej txheem kev txhim kho tsis phim qhov nrawm ntawm kev hloov pauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob thiab qhov kev thov rau kev hloov pauv qauv zog. Muaj peb qhov tsis zoo tseem ceeb:
Ib qho teeb meem yog lub kaw lus ntau yam qub dhau lawm.
Qhov tsis muaj hluav taws xob yav tom ntej, ib qho cuab yeej tseem ceeb uas siv los tiv thaiv kev lag luam, thiab qhov tsis muaj cov khoom tshwj xeeb uas npog cov kev pheej hmoo tshwj xeeb xws li kev hloov pauv ntawm cov zis hluav taws xob tshiab, qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi siab tshaj plaws, thiab kev cuam tshuam ntawm huab cua hnyav.
Qhov thib ob, cov teeb meem kev lag luam hla cheeb tsam yog qhov tseem ceeb.
Cov cai tswjfwm kev lag luam hluav taws xob thoob plaws cov xeev (suav nrog cov cheeb tsam ywj pheej thiab cov nroog) tsis sib koom ua ke, cov txheej txheem suav nyiaj tsis sib xws, thiab muaj qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb hauv cov cai tswjfwm tus nqi xa mus. Kev cuam tshuam ntawm tsoomfwv thiab kev tiv thaiv hauv zos tshwm sim los ntawm lub sijhawm mus rau lub sijhawm, ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev ua tiav qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm kev faib cov peev txheej hluav taws xob thoob plaws cov xeev los ntawm kev lag luam derivatives.
Qhov thib peb, kev sib koom tes ntawm txoj cai thiab txoj cai tswjfwm yuav tsum tau txhim kho.
Qhov tsis muaj kev sib koom tes thiab kev sib txuas ntawm lub zog thiab kev tswj hwm nyiaj txiag, ua ke nrog kev sib haum xeeb tsis zoo ntawm kev xa khoom thiab kev daws teeb meem ntawm kev lag luam derivatives thiab kev ua lag luam hluav taws xob, nrog rau qhov kev koom tes siab thiab ntau qhov kev txhawj xeeb txog kev pheej hmoo rau cov koom haum ua lag luam, tau ua rau tsis kam thiab tsis muaj peev xwm siv cov cuab yeej derivatives, yog li txwv tsis pub siv cov haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua lag luam.
Tam sim no, kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi hluav taws xob tau cuam tshuam loj heev rau kev txhim kho kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov chaw ua haujlwm sab saud thiab sab hauv qab hauv kev lag luam fais fab. Vim muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm cov zis, cov tuam txhab tsim hluav taws xob tshiab tau pom lawv cov nqi hluav taws xob hauv lub network tsis zoo li qhov xav tau, nrog rau qee qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm qhov project poob qis dua qhov ceeb toom, cuam tshuam rau kev txaus siab rau kev nqis peev rau qhov project tshiab. Cov tuam txhab muag hluav taws xob ntsib ob qho kev nyuaj siab ntawm "tus nqi yuav hluav taws xob siab thiab tus nqi muag hluav taws xob tsawg," poob rau hauv kev nyuaj siab ua haujlwm. Cov neeg siv kev lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov tuam txhab siv hluav taws xob ntau, pom tias nws nyuaj rau xauv cov nqi hluav taws xob ua ntej, cuam tshuam loj heev rau kev ruaj khov ntawm cov phiaj xwm tsim khoom thiab tom qab ntawd cuam tshuam rau kev ruaj ntseg ntawm kev lag luam thiab cov khoom siv. Yog tias peb tsis ua kom nrawm dua kev txhim kho ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob, nws yuav cuam tshuam ntxiv rau kev txhim kho kev lag luam hluav taws xob, uas tsis zoo rau kev txhim kho zoo ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob tshiab thiab tej zaum yuav cuam tshuam rau kev ruaj ntseg hluav taws xob thiab qhov xwm txheej tag nrho ntawm kev lav phib xaub. Txhawm rau daws cov teeb meem kev pheej hmoo hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob, txhawb kev txhim kho kev sib koom tes ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob thiab kev lag luam qhov chaw, thiab pab txhawb kev nce qib ntawm kev hloov pauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob, cov neeg sawv cev ntawm Ob Lub Rooj Sib Tham hais tias:
Ua ntej, nws raug pom zoo kom ua kom sai dua kev tsim cov khoom lag luam ntau yam thiab tus qauv kom tsim lub hauv paus ruaj khov rau kev tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo. Ua raws li Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas Kev Tswj Xyuas Kev Lag Luam ntawm Tuam Tshoj (CSRC) thiab Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Zog Hauv Tebchaws, cov kev sib pauv yav tom ntej yuav tsum tau coj los ua kom sai dua kev tshawb fawb, kev txhim kho, thiab kev teev npe ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob yav tom ntej, thiab ua kom tiav kev tshawb fawb, kev txhim kho, thiab kev teev npe rau cov ntawv cog lus hluav taws xob yav tom ntej uas siv tau hauv tebchaws sai li sai tau. Yuav tsum tsim kom muaj lub tshuab ntawm "kev sib koom tes hauv tebchaws + cov haujlwm sim hauv zos" los txhawb kom cov xeev laus hauv kev lag luam qhov chaw ua ntej ua cov haujlwm sim rau cov khoom tshwj xeeb xws li cov ntawv cog lus sib txawv ntawm tus nqi siab tshaj plaws thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab. Cov haujlwm sim no yuav tsum tsom mus rau kev sib phim cov kev xav tau kev tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov koom haum lag luam tshiab xws li kev tsim hluav taws xob tshiab, kev khaws cia hluav taws xob, thiab cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob virtual, thiab tom qab tsim cov kev paub rov ua dua, lawv yuav tsum tau txhawb nqa thoob tebchaws.
Qhov thib ob, nws raug pom zoo kom ua kom sai sai rau kev tsim kom muaj kev lag luam hauv tebchaws uas muaj kev sib koom ua ke, tshem tawm cov teeb meem rau kev lag luam hla cheeb tsam, thiab tsim kom muaj cov cai hauv tebchaws rau kev lag luam hluav taws xob. Ua kom sai sai rau kev tsim kom muaj lub tshuab sib koom tes hauv tebchaws rau kev lag luam hluav taws xob, txhawb kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov cai lag luam, cov qauv kev suav nyiaj, thiab cov txheej txheem tsim nqi thoob plaws txhua lub xeev (suav nrog cov cheeb tsam ywj pheej thiab cov nroog), thiab tshem tawm qhov sib txawv ntawm txoj cai thiab kev tiv thaiv hauv zos. Txhawb kev sib txuas thiab kev sib koom tes ntawm lub platform kev lag luam hluav taws xob hauv tebchaws thiab cov platform kev lag luam yav tom ntej, ua kom muaj kev sib koom thiab siv cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb xws li cov ntaub ntawv lag luam, cov ntaub ntawv txoj haujlwm, thiab cov xwm txheej ua tiav daim ntawv cog lus, thiab txo cov nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tsis sib xws hauv kev lag luam hla cheeb tsam.
Qhov thib peb, nws raug pom zoo kom txhawb nqa kev tsim kho vaj tse hauv kev ua lag luam thiab txhim kho lub peev xwm lav kev pabcuam tag nrho. Nce kev nqis peev hauv kev tsim kho vaj tse rau kev ua lag luam hluav taws xob, txhawb nqa kev sib pauv yav tom ntej thiab cov chaw lag luam hluav taws xob hauv kev txhim kho lawv cov txheej txheem kev siv tshuab, thiab txhim kho kev ruaj ntseg, kev ruaj ntseg, thiab kev nqa peev xwm ntawm lub kaw lus ua lag luam. Tsim kom muaj lub platform sib koom ua ke ntawm cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob hauv tebchaws, koom ua ke cov peev txheej ntaub ntawv thoob plaws tag nrho cov saw hlau ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob, kev xa hluav taws xob, kev siv, thiab kev khaws cia hluav taws xob, thiab muab kev txhawb nqa cov ntaub ntawv rau kev txiav txim siab raug ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab kev tiv thaiv thiab tswj kev pheej hmoo zoo.
Qhov thib plaub, nws raug pom zoo kom tsim thiab txhim kho ib txoj hauv kev rau kev sib koom tes txoj cai thiab kev sib koom tes ntawm kev tswj hwm kom ntseeg tau tias kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev ua lag luam zoo thiab raws li txoj cai. Tsim kom muaj ib txoj hauv kev ua haujlwm sib koom tes ntawm kev tswj hwm lub zog thiab kev saib xyuas nyiaj txiag, qhia meej txog kev faib lub luag haujlwm ntawm National Energy Administration, China Securities Regulatory Commission, thiab tsoomfwv hauv zos hauv kev saib xyuas kev ua lag luam hluav taws xob, thiab tsim kom muaj lub zog tswj hwm zoo thiab ua haujlwm sib koom tes los ntawm sab saud mus rau hauv qab. Txhim kho txoj hauv kev txhawb nqa txoj cai, koom nrog kev lag luam hedging rau hauv qhov system kev ntsuam xyuas kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo, thiab muab kev txhawb nqa meej rau cov lag luam uas ua hedging raws li cov cai hauv kev nyiaj txiag qiv nyiaj thiab kev txhawb nqa se.
Qhov thib tsib, nws raug pom zoo kom txhawb nqa kev cog qoob loo thiab kev taw qhia ntawm cov koom haum ua lag luam, thiab txhim kho kev muaj peev xwm tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo ntawm tag nrho kev lag luam. Yuav tsum tsim kom muaj lub platform kev cob qhia rau pej xeem, suav nrog kev cob qhia kev paub txog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rau hauv lub kaw lus cob qhia ib txwm muaj ntawm cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob. Ua ke nrog cov koom haum kev lag luam thiab kev sib pauv yav tom ntej, yuav tsum tau ua kev cob qhia tshwj xeeb los txhim kho "kev tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo" kev paub thiab kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov koom haum ua lag luam, kom lawv tuaj yeem "siv thiab twv siv" cov cuab yeej derivative.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Peb Hlis-14-2026